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Prediction for CME (2024-12-24T09:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-24T09:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35909/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Relatively wide, bright CME in SOHO LASCO running difference imagery seen to the southeast and much fainter in white light imagery, likely associated with an M4.1-flare from AR13932 (S17E17) with an associated eruption. In addition to the flare seen in GOES 131 imagery, a significant looking eruption in GOES 284 with a large magnetic loop and dimming signature around 2024-12-24T08:30Z is observed near the vicinity of the active region. No clear arrival signature in solar wind at L1: there might be a weak arrival around ~2024-12-28T15:40Z, with separation of magnetic field components and a drop in density but it is inconclusive.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-28T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35912/1
Model Inputs:
2024-12-24T09:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-7.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=355.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2024-12-24T18:12Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-28T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-28T08:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-29T12:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-28T10:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_181200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 82.10 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-24T19:54Z

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